I will explain to you how we start World War 3, even if you know nothing about Geopolitics.

* “We” = “The West”

 

Foreword

I’d just like to congratulate ASIO, ASIS the Australian Federal Police and other related Intel infrastructure for the recent successful raids on the many criminal elements in our society, We have faith in their professionalism and future ability to undertake the correct action in accordance with the law, and certainly Australians can feel proud of their capabilities.

 

How we Start world War 3, the simple Technical guide with pictures.

 

In this guide i’m going to literally “connect the dots” and explain how we start world war 3(for better or worse), I won’t be using conjecture but if you work for the CIA or any other organization please feel free to comment and explain where I have error in this simple general guide.

I will use bullet points, pictures and link to references to keep this short and simple.

 

1. Syria the First Dot.

This is a map of Syria.

 

  • The “West” primarily the US + a few coalition members will use its extensive air capability to hit ISIS positions in the areas they occupy in Syrian sovereign territory.

http://time.com/3393843/isil-isis-iraq-syria-barack-obama/

 

  • The “West” claims it does not need permission from Syria to carry out these attacks against ISIS positions in Syria, The US President claims he does not need permission from Congress.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-prepared-to-order-airstrikes-in-syria-as-part-of-strategy-against-islamic-state/2014/09/09/058199e2-3834-11e4-bdfb-de4104544a37_story.html

 

Below is a Map of General ISIS positions in Syria.

General ISIS positions in Syria.

 

All Maps with Dot can be clicked for enlargement.

 

Lets place our first dot it goes in Syria.

dots1

Summary:

US + Coalition will attack ISIS positions in Syria, “the coalition” claims they need no international or domestic authority to do this

 

2. Syrian information / Complications

  • Syria has a capable Anti Aircraft system which includes many Russian Federation supplied systems.
  • Russian Federation delivered the S300  AA system to Syria.
  • Syrian Air defense has the capability to engage and destroy collation targets.
  • Syria’s national boarders are recognized and uncontested by every nation on earth including the UN general assembly and security council.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/russias-advanced-s300-antiaircraft-missiles-have-arrived-in-syria-president-bashar-alassad-tells-lebanese-tv-news-channel-8637146.html

 

Lets Update the map with those realities.

dots3

Syrian AA and Coalition Air craft.

3. Potential for an incident is high.

  • Offensive Aircraft over sovereign airspace without authorization from that nation has the very high potential of a purposeful or accidental incident.

 

 

4. The official “Western” response to an incident.

  • US President Barack Obama has threatened to wipe out Syria’s air defense system and topple the Syrian government if President Bashar al-Assad ordered his forces to shoot American planes entering Syrian airspace.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2014/09/15/378792/us-to-assad-down-planes-youll-be-out/

 

 

5. The Result of that action includes Iran

  • Iran has a strong and entangling security commitment to Syria.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Syria_relations

  • The defense Pact between Syria and Iran was signed in 2005 and is binding.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/feb/17/usa.syria

  • This Defense Pact nearly guarantees Iran will act in Syria’s Defense in the above described response (point 4)

 

Lets update the Dots.

dots4

Iran is dragged into the conflict

Summary

For simplicity i’m not going to include on the map the other nations in the region that will be dragged in at this point becasue i have an objective to pass education on and i will not confuse this information with many vectors, but at this stage this is a regional war, as Iran comes to Syria’s defense and engages multiple targets in the region, Iran has a general mid range offensive and defensive capability to do this.

The result is a regional war but not “World War 3” as such at this stage, but you may be interested in the next points..

 

 

6. Iran and other nations are admitted to SCO and explaining what SCO is.

  • SCO stands for Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
  • SCO is group of nations that have agreed on a mutual defense arrangement very similar to NATO.
  • So if you are unsure as to what NATO is, this is a group of nations with binding defense agreements.
  • All the nations agree that they will come to each others defense in the event of a military engagement or attack.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation

From Wikipedia :

is a Eurasian political, economic and military organisation which was founded in 2001 in Shanghai by the leaders of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Except for Uzbekistan, the other countries had been members of the Shanghai Five, founded in 1996; after the inclusion of Uzbekistan in 2001, the members renamed the organisation.

Follow the link for more info.

The Core members are:

  • China
  • Russia
  • Kazakhstan
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Tajikistan
  • Uzbekistan

 

  • Iran is to be Included and Heads of Russia and China agree to “vigorously enhance” cooperation among SCO members.

http://thediplomat.com/2014/09/xi-jinping-vladimir-putin-meet-ahead-of-sco-summit/

  • Iran’s SCO membership green light.

http://indian.ruvr.ru/2014_08_01/SCO–admit-new-members/

Lets update the map

dots5

This is a “World War”

 

7. Conflict that draws in Russia, China and many satellites is by definition, a “World War”.

  • I have excluded many aspects from these details, I did not included the other members that are green lighted to be included into SCO for simplicity.
  • I have excluded the conflict parameters related to the Ukrainian situation and how this is being viewed by he Russian Federation.
  • I have excluded the “Asian Pivot” information and how this is being viewed by China.

Final Summary

That is how we get to “World War 3” Iran itself has much defensive and offensive capability, China and Russia more so, the War will likely not turn “Nuclear” in an immediate fashion, but will effect you in a personal fashion.

You may contest that Iran has not been admitted to SCO as of right now, but I will remind you of the many exclusions of this document.

As always I’m happy for feedback.

 

Russia Signals Its Intention to Admit Iran to Asian Security Bloc

September 10, 2014 – 5:18 AM

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/patrick-goodenough/russia-signals-its-intention-admit-iran-asian-security-bloc

 

Advertisements

3 comments

  1. Nice easy read, simple to understand. On a timeline, how long would you expect these events to occur? Months, Years? I understand it is a rippling effect but what would be the next major thing that would kick off WW3, an invasion of Syria?

    1. Thanks for the feedback, this is a scenario , the key point to understand is that “The West” is choosing to ignore international law and norms and flying armed air power above a sovereign nation airspace, so that is an “unusual” situation.

      It also includes a high % chance of an incident as described in the blog, in which case someone will be asked to “yield”, so Syria would be asked to accept foreign aircraft in their nation hitting targets which may include their own, the problem is at a point they may call that bluff.

      in which case a regional war is guaranteed, and this regional war is a proxy of world war anyhow, so the likelihood that the “world war” goes “nuclear” are low, but the participants (as noted) will be active and that is world war.

      hope that helps.

      no specific timeline, whenever “The West” wants to kick it off.

      anytime after foreign aircraft invade the sovereign territory of Syria without authorization this scenario is relevant, if that doesn’t occur this specific scenario is not relevant.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s